As North American Defense Evolves, What Role Does Mexico Play?
By Lieutenant Colonel Eric W. Bucheit Jr., U.S. Air Force
Editor's Note: Lieutenant Colonel Bucheit's thesis won the 2018 FAO Association writing award at the Eisenhower School for National Security and Resource Strategy, National Defense University. In the interest of space, we publish without research notes. To see the full thesis with all research material, visit www.faoa.org. The Journal is pleased to bring you this outstanding scholarship.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government.
Mexico is an integral part of the United States’ strategic preparation in many domestic and international issues. Understanding Mexico’s current role and potential future roll is integral to a strong North American defense strategy. It is also essential when looking toward the future of the continent. Mexico’s role could vary depending on many different factors, but overall, this analysis looks at how a continued increase in cooperation between the countries in North America is generally beneficial to all partners. This paper examines current security concerns, Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) relations with Mexico, the Mexican military, North American defense evolution, future roles of Mexico in North American defense, and finally policy recommendations. The main points drive at the role Mexico plays in North American security, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and how the role could possibly change in the future as North American defense evolves.
North American Security
Currently, one of the greatest security concerns in North America is Mexico’s relationship with the U.S. Mexico is viewed as a partner on many different levels, but it could be one of the greatest Allies with the U.S. Mexico is also a pivotal international partner for the U.S. Strong ties between neighbors can decrease insecurity in North America and also increase both countries prosperity. Recent changes in U.S. policy and diplomatic interactions are threatening this partnership and North American security. A continued partnership in all arenas is mutually beneficial. Although there is a history of conflict and changing borders through their shared histories, working together for joint security and prosperity is of great strategic importance.
There are many interconnected policies and relationships between the U.S. and Mexico. The main issues that need to be strengthened in order to create a stronger security environment and increase both countries national powers can be looked at using Diplomatic, Informational, Military and Economic (DIME) relationships between the countries. Focusing on how the nations can be stronger together, using both countries instruments of power, can resolve many interdependent issues for the countries. The following pages step through issues between the U.S. and Mexico while applying a DIME analysis.
Over the past several decades, Mexico and the U.S. have grown stronger diplomatically. This can be seen through interactions during the “War on Drugs”, the Mérida Initiative, and trade agreements. These diplomatic engagements are not the only agreements that the U.S. and Mexico have achieved, but are some of the largest. For example, between 2014 and 2016, President Nieto approved more than 100 bilateral projects between the countries. The diplomacy coordinated between each country through these agreements is significant in securing the international relationship and North America. Recent changes in U.S. and Mexican diplomatic interactions weaken their partnership and decrease the recent gains they have made internally and internationally.
The “War on Drugs” is one example of the countries working together over many decades. Initial diplomacy and information sharing between the countries failed in a few ways. One was in the late 1970s when it eliminated many of the weaker smaller drug smugglers and drove larger drug rings to grow even larger. This was problematic for the Mexican authorities to control. Another problem, formed in the initial years, was that the U.S. was successful in slowing down some Columbian flow of Cocaine through the Caribbean and Florida, but neglected to see that the Cocaine started to flow through the larger networks in Mexico. These attempts to stem the flow of drugs across the borders tried to prevent trafficking and did to some extent, but the lack of integration, information sharing and further diplomatic actions led to a problem for Mexico and overall international security.
One diplomatic attempt to make this situation better was the Mérida Initiative. This is more recent and formed in the late 2000s between talks with President Bush and President Fox. The Mérida Initiative has four pillars: 1) disrupting the operational capacity of organized crime; 2) institutionalizing Mexico's capacity to sustain the rule of law and protect human rights; 3) creating a 21st century border; and 4) building strong and resilient communities; and has a sharp focus on crime prevention and the rule of law. This initiative took existing diplomacy and information sharing and reinforced agreements and cooperation. It is also financially assisting Mexico to help promote mutually beneficial activities. “Since 2008, United States security co-operation with Mexico in the areas of training, capacity building, and equipment has amounted to $1.2 (~$1.5 Billion) Billion.” This is not a very large amount of money when thinking about per year and the potential impact to the security of the region. For example, the U.S. has spent over $2 Trillion in overseas war efforts, while a neighbor with smuggling routes directly into the U.S. has not been given significant help to stem international security concerns. Between 2008 and 2015, Mexico typically spent about 10-1 for each U.S. dollar on their own security. Over the same period that the U.S. spent $1.5 Billion, Mexico spent $84 Billion (with $15 Billion in 2015) on its own security for the Mérida Initiative. This bilateral agreement focus’ money towards assisting Mexican states law-enforcement building capacity along with other areas, and therefore Mexico gets the main benefit from this agreement, but based on the international security concerns, the U.S. could increase funding and possibly match Mexican spending to show dedication and loyalty to the agreement and mutual prosperity.
The informational power gains through the Mérida Initiative will hopefully continue to grow. The communication networks that can be established and built upon will help in many situations from passing information on possible terrorists crossing the border, to drug runners, illegal immigrants and many other situations. Security emphasizes information transfer and observers believe that the security cooperation between the two countries will continue to advance. This would tend to increase informational power for both countries and a more secure international region.
Significant strain in the international diplomatic relationship between the U.S. and Mexico has occurred in the past few years. President Trump and newly elected President López Obrador’s relationship has room to improve. Some of the contentious topics that have strained relations include unfair trade partnerships, immigration and border security. These topics could be areas where the countries leaders could work together to continue to grow partnerships and strengthen both countries.
Concerning border security and a fully completed wall between the countries to stop the flow of illegal immigrants, drugs and other illegal activities, it is ignoring some lessons the international partners learned from the “War on Drugs.” When the U.S. cracked down on drug trafficking in Florida and the Caribbean, the flow still came in but moved more towards Mexican routes. It did reduce the flow for short periods of time, but drugs still came across the border. With a larger wall and more security on the southern border of the U.S., the international crime organizations will most likely evolve to bring the drugs and other illegal material to the U.S. through other routes. It may be better to know where traffic occurs, then to find and commit resources to every type and area of illegal trafficking.
Another main diplomatic issue between the countries is illegal immigration. The number of illegal immigrants to the U.S. rose from 3.2 million in 1986 to 11.3 million in 2009-2014. This raises security concerns between countries and the regional area. This is because not all of the U.S. illegal immigrants are coming from Mexico. Many are coming from other American countries. In 2016, there was a 50% increase in border patrol apprehensions for people from Central American countries. This is illustrated by the decline in Mexican apprehensions and increase in Central American apprehensions. The Northern Triangle consists of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. See figure 1 below. This is a growing concern for the international relationship. There are a significant number of Mexican citizens in the U.S., both legally and illegally and the Mexican government supports them in many different ways. President Fox, in 2000, stated he supported the Mexicans inside the U.S., both on legal and illegal status and would work the best way forward for them and Mexican diaspora. President Fox kept to his promise, but was not able to accomplish a bilateral immigration accord with the U.S. This is an area that is very important to the Mexican population and effects the security of both countries. Mexico wants to take care of its citizens but also not allow open illegal immigration through its country from people transiting Mexico only to go to the U.S. Mexico is working to enact comprehensive immigration reform and help stem the flow of Central American immigration through Mexico. Even with this emphasis, the U.S. does not seem to truly acknowledge all the work that Mexico is trying to accomplish to benefit both countries and the international region.
It is good to build strong border security between countries, but it needs to be mutually supported by diplomatic agreements between both sides. If it’s not supported by both sides, it could worsen an unstable security environment. In order to have a strong security environment, it is best to have your international neighbors all on the same page, fighting the same problems and not distracted by breakdowns in diplomacy.
International regional security also depends on economic relations and security. The largest economic interdependency agreement in North America was NAFTA until it was replaced with the USMCA in 2018. Besides China, Mexico and Canada are the U.S. largest trading partners. In 2016, the U.S. traded $578.6B with China, $544.9B with Canada and $525.1B with Mexico (Japan is next with $195.5B). For Mexico, the U.S. is its leading partner in trade. This creates a very large tie in the region while also creating strength and security. The new trade agreement looks promising, but may take time to find its true value.
Prosperous neighbors support a strong security environment. Mexico needs strong trading partners with its neighbors and a growing economy in order to improve security in the country and along its borders. Mexico’s economy has stagnated and slowed over the past few years and its productivity is also not improving. A reduction in trade and less-favorable trade policies could hurt the Mexican economy even more. This would damage the country’s ability to put money towards infrastructure and security. The Mexican police force is already in need of continued support and growth because corruption is rampant in the country. If the economy starts to fall even further, this will only increase the level of corruption and damage what the country has been trying to build recently.
One area that the North American region is doing fairly well in is their military relations. The relationship between the U.S. and Canada has been strong for a very long time. The U.S. and Canada are intertwined in the operation of NORAD, but Mexico is not a named part of NORAD. Mexico does have officers at NORTHCOM and liaisons, but not in a very large numbers. The relationship between the U.S. and Mexico has not been close for a long time, but they’ve evolved and grown stronger over the past twenty-five years and significantly over the past ten. There is a common goal to protect North America and they are developing in that area.
Recently, the Mexican military has recapitalized and bought significant foreign military sales from the U.S. In 2012, they purchased two C-130Js, for $412 Million; in 2014, they purchased twenty-three Blackhawk helicopters and 3,335 HMMWVs for $1.4 Billion all together. This is the largest purchase in one year by the Mexican military. It will help them grow and increase ties between the U.S. and Mexican militaries. The U.S. also helps train the Mexican military on a limited basis. This help is determined and changed as needed, and allowed, based on the current situation in the Mexican military.
One large factor in international support is the current state of corruption in the Mexican military. In 2014, the Mexican military was involved in multiple human rights violations and extrajudicial killings. The U.S. has withheld support due to incidents like this but is hopeful to proceed and continue to grow together and teach and/or train as needed. The interaction between the Mexican Navy and Marines and the U.S. military has been good, but the Mexican Army is more reluctant to cooperate. This is because “the army is more susceptible to corruption, since its soldiers have been deployed throughout the country in fixed locations, where there are more opportunities to be bribed. They also have direct contact with drugs through eradication efforts.” There is a large effort to control corruption and improve the security condition in the military. Even with this type of behavior, the military is currently used to secure the public. This is because the local police force is very corrupt and cannot be trusted to police effectively throughout the country. Mexican leadership is trying diligently to fix this and has instituted a new militarized police force trying to combat corruptness.
Even in this environment, due to events over the past years in regard to political and economic uncertainty, the Mexican military has doubled down on participation with the U.S. This is an area that the U.S. and Mexico need to continue to grow stronger. When other relationships falter, a strong military relationship can be a good seed to grow cooperation in the future. This also helps the security in the North American region. Mexico, Canada and the U.S. are already engaged to help protect each other and pass information if there is a threat. Working closer together and continually improving communications, tactics, techniques and procedures will only improve the areas military relationships and security.
The U.S. needs to lead the way in North America in order to ensure regional security. This can be done though strengthening diplomatic, informational, military and economic ties with primarily Mexico while keeping focus on the key enduring interests of the U.S.: Security, Prosperity, Values and International Order. This can be accomplished but requires an understanding from all key players in the U.S. on how to proceed.
DoD and USNORTHCOM Relations with Mexico
Overall, the history of Mexico and the U.S. and the current politics and relationships does not support an immediate significant increase in partnerships between the U.S. and Mexico. The countries need to work closely and build on trust to continue to grow relationships in all facets of the military and government. A strong Mexico will enhance North America’s ability to achieve combined strategic goals.
There are many current areas where Mexico is incorporated into North American defense. One of the most significant is USNORTHCOM’s strategic mission with its partner. USNORTHCOM includes Mexico to the maximum extent possible and bases interactions on a basic proposition that in the relationships between the countries, there is no senior partner or junior partner and that they are both equal partners and both sovereign nations. USNORTHCOM sets a baseline of shared interests between the countries and as stated several times, what happens in one country effects the other in many ways. USNORTHCOM will continue to foster a good working relationship with Mexico and the partnership will continue to grow based on trust and at the speed Mexico determines.
Another area where the U.S. is affirming commitment to bilateral cooperation is through congress. In March of 2017, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution titled “S.Res. 102: A resolution reaffirming the strategic partnership between the United States and Mexico and recognizing bilateral cooperation that advances the national security and national interests of both countries.” This resolution states many areas where the U.S. and Mexico can work together to become stronger, help both countries in all aspects to include strategic military goals and to defend North America. It states the value of trade, jobs, and military relationships and has a fundamental base of “mutual respect and the promotion of shared democratic values and principles.” These types of resolutions and signs of trust can go a long way for building relationships, but the statements need to be followed through on and lived by on a day to day basis by all organizations.
One more avenue for cooperation is through U.S.-Mexico Defense Bilateral Working Groups. These are conducted on many different levels to build trust and partnerships. These occur at different intervals from yearly at the highest level and then more frequently at the lower levels down to daily interaction by countries specialists from all different United States and Mexican organizations. For example, the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Policy’s Mexican desk officers are on the phone with and coordinating bilateral military issues with Mexico daily. These personnel work tirelessly to support better bilateral relationships on a daily basis. This serves as a critical path to inform senior defense leaders making policy decision and interacting with Mexican leadership.
A recent area where the U.S. could have been more inclusive to Mexico is through the National Security Strategy (NSS) and the National Defense Strategy (NDS). Both of these documents failed to mention Mexico one time. When our southern neighbors read the public NSS and the summary of the NDS and don’t see a presence in the strategy, they will most likely not want to resource efforts to be included in the strategy.
The closest the NSS got to mentioning Mexico was when it mentioned the Western Hemisphere. It stated that “Stable, friendly, and prosperous states in the Western Hemisphere enhance our security and benefit our economy. Democratic states connected by shared values and economic interests will reduce the violence, drug trafficking, and illegal immigration that threaten our common security, and will limit opportunities for adversaries to operate from areas of close proximity to us.” These sentences talk around Mexico, but not directly to the nation as a force of positive support for North America or an area where we are building partnerships. The NSS then goes on to discuss the vital role of U.S. and Canada. Although there is a very strong connection with Canada through many areas to include NATO and NORAD, the U.S. also has a significant relationships and border with Mexico that is not mentioned in the NSS.
The NDS does not mention Mexico as well, but also doesn’t mention Canada. It does mention that the U.S. has advantages in the Western Hemisphere that it needs to sustain. This could be seen as much more receptive to Mexico and showcases the strength of the U.S. and Mexican partnerships in many military areas. This could be overshadowed by the NSS, but the NDS goes in the right direction when it discusses deepening relationships with countries in the Western Hemisphere. This may help U.S. and Mexican relationships slightly, but more could have been stated in the NDS and the NSS to draw on the unique relationship the countries have and how they could grow.
The countries do have many military relationships as previously discussed. One that could be capitalized on further is the joint exercise AMALGAM EAGLE. This exercise has occurred annually with the U.S., Canada and Mexico. It is designed to build assurance and mutual respect for the sovereignty of the countries. The director of joint training and exercises for NORAD and USNORTHCOM stated that “Each year the exercise has grown in scope and complexity, which is a direct result of greater trust and confidence in each other as sovereign nations, capable of exchanging key information in a timely manner between military and appropriate civilian agency partners.” This exercise is a great example of the kinds of exercises and training that should be continued and grown in the future. This will continue to grow our ability to work together as partners.
U.S. senior leadership officials have taken different stances on Mexico over the past few years, and this leads to a regression in trust and cooperation. As discussed earlier, trade agreements and the worry of illegal immigrants has damaged Mexican and U.S. relations, but members of the DoD have used different language that is more towards cooperation and mutual benefit. Two key positions in this are the USNORTHCOM/CC and the Secretary of Defense. Both of these strategic leaders have talked about cooperation and continuing to build a great partnership.
The prior USNORTHCOM/CC, General Lori Robinson, stated in February of 2018 that the military-to-military relationship with Mexico is “unbelievably strong” and “theater security cooperation is an essential part of strengthening continental defense and builds relationships essential for future cooperation.” This statement displays USNORTHCOM’s focus on Mexico and building a good relationship. In a posture hearing in April, 2017, she stated that “The relationship USNORTHCOM enjoys with Mexico’s Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA) and the Secretariat of the Navy (SEMAR) continues to evolve as a strategic institutional partnership.” She has consistently led USNORTHCOM and NORAD to incorporate Mexico and be as cooperative as possible at every juncture. This continued trust by USNORTHCOM/CCs is needed to continue to grow relationships.
Recent Secretary of Defense Mattis also had very strong feelings on Mexico and military relations with them. Secretary Mattis joined Mexico in Sept 2017 for their Independence Day. He was the first SECDEF to attend Mexican Independence Day celebrations. During that trip he emphasized the strong military to military relationships and made sure to not discuss other factors impacting the two countries relationships. In regard to NORAD, Secretary Mattis stated that we have a very strong working relationship with Canada, but not an open relationship with Mexico. After discussing how strong and open the U.S. and Canada’s relationship was, he stated, “with Mexico, very, very strong, quiet military-to-military relations.” Secretary Mattis believes in building trust in the partnership between the countries and his trip down to Mexico during their Independence Day celebration is just another step in building trust.
There are many other opportunities that both countries take and use in order to gain trust and interoperability. These occur at all levels of the military. One example is an exhibition soccer game between West Point and Mexico’s Military Academy. The U.S. Army North (ARNORTH) Commander, Lt Gen Buchanan stated that “Events like this build a sense of esprit de corps between comrades and also form the basis for stronger personal and professional relationships with future military leaders as defense partners.” Another, more formal and longer lasting relationship is the FIARP (Fifth Army Inter-American Relations Program). This has occurred annually since WWII and is all about relationships. The Chief of ARNORTH’s Security Cooperation Division G3/7 stated “this multi-decade program between the Fifth Army and SEDENA has formed the basis for the ‘partnership bridges’ that we have mutually benefited from since its inception in 1946. The senior leaders from both militaries form friendships, both personally and professionally, that create not just strong bonds at the soldier level, but between the nations as well.” Building these types of relationships is essential and needs to be continued and funded at appropriately.
There are other types of interaction that USNORTHCOM can host for North America that builds bonds and trust between the countries of North America. One example was in 2007 when USNORTHCOM hosted Canada and Mexico at pandemic influenza conference. This was a great opportunity to work together for a common goal. Another more recent event came as the USNORTHCOM/CC co-hosted the Central American Security Conference in Mexico. This was the first time Mexico co-hosted the event and showcased their willingness and leadership during this successful event and because of this, USSOUTHCOM/CC stated that this was a historic event. These types of interactions supported by the United States, DoD and USNORTHCOM are crucial to building trust and mutual support for all of North America and the Western Hemisphere.
Mexican Military
Over the course of Mexico’s history, there has been many times where it has distrusted the military or where it did not fund the military significantly. Mexico’s military is built for what it needs domestically and internationally. There is not an expectation of a large increase in military spending from Mexico. Their military will mainly replenish outdated equipment and purchase new programs as needed to meet their strategic goals. This was the overall thrust of the recent foreign military purchases, mentioned earlier, and this will continue into the future.
Mexico currently has around 270,000 total active military members and 110,000 reserve military forces. This is about 0.3% of the total population of Mexico in the military or about half as much percentage of population as the United States and about equal to Canada. This is a fairly significant size, but their strategic goals are different than the United States. To fund this military, they spend about 2% of all government spending on their military, and only 0.5% of GDP. These percent level of funding has remained the same since 1990 and doesn’t expect to rise in the near future, but the actual amount has fluctuated significantly due to the economy of Mexico. For example, their spending went from $3B USD in 2004 to $5B USD in 2011 then up to $6.7B USD in 2015 and now down to $5.5B USD in 2017. Even with this fluctuation, it’s still a significant amount of money used for the military.
With this amount of spending and size of the military, they do not have many combat coded major platforms. For example, although they have 478 aircraft, most are transport, trainers or helicopters, with only 36 attack style aircraft. Also, their Army has no tanks, but many armored fighting vehicles. Their Navy is very formidable and although it doesn’t have any aircraft carriers, submarines or destroyers, it has 143 ships that mostly patrol their territorial waters. Mexico is traditionally focused on internal security, therefore they do not need a force like that of the United States or many of our allies.
The Mexican military does have some ambitions for external engagements. “We are witnessing an evolution of the Mexican military from an internally focused force to one that is willing and increasingly capable of providing security leadership in Latin America.” Even as this is occurring it could be slowed by political movements and domestic needs. The military would need to spend $3B USD per year of the next 5 years on procurement of new equipment, but it will most likely only spend $1B USD per year to try and maintain capabilities. This struggle to grow their military and also to increase external engagement has been a long-standing issue for the country, one that will not go away anytime soon.
North American Defense Evolution
The world is becoming more competitive with new and emerging threats in many different areas. The National Security Strategy lays out many of these current and emerging threats. These impact not only USNORTHCOM and NORAD, but also all other aspects of the nation and North America. Some of the major factors that the NSS brings up that pertain to USNORTHCOM and NORAD are Securing US Borders and Territory, Keep America Safe in the Cyber Era, Renew America’s Competitive Advantage, and Renew Capabilities.
“Threats to the United States and Canada are increasingly global, transregional, all-domain, and multi-functional in nature.” More specified areas under the NSS that directly affect the defense of North America as the world evolves includes the reemergence of great power competition, increased capability of Violent Extremist Organizations in the world, cyber threats, and new technologies. These threats and the fact that protecting our homeland is the number one pillar of our National Security Strategy puts USNORTHCOM extremely important to support by all parts of our government.
The previous decades of worrying about Russian bombers coming over the North Pole and standoff distance as a main factor are not completely out of the picture, but the likelihood has lowered in recent decades. Although this is still a possibility, “physical standoff has eroded due to technological advancement of our adversaries. Commanders today have much less decision space, in part because hostile actions can occur from greater ranges with little or no warning.” NORAD is forced to adjust and change from a tiered defense strategy into a new way to recognize, analyze and make decisions much quicker.
Therefore, sufficiently supplying USNORTHCOM with the ability to face the changing landscape of the world and ways to conduct war is one of the top priorities of the DoD and President. NORAD also understands that relationships are key to this success. They are leveraging supporting Combatant Commands, the Missile Defense Agency and Allies to better determine their path forward.
With these efforts is an overall need to renewing capabilities across the DoD. This is key to the success of NORAD. Recent DoD budget cuts have significantly reduced our competitive advantage. The new NSS emphasizes the need to regain this advantage and USNORTHCOM is working to modernize many of its systems to outpace competitor’s advances. These systems are in coordination with other agencies but deal mainly with missile defense and detection as discussed previously. The changing funding levels is a very real issue that USNORTHCOM and NORAD need to plan for and work to gain adequate capabilities.
Access to new technologies is evolving and giving many adversaries advantages they did not possess a short time ago. “Globalization and access to advanced technology gives a greater number of adversaries, both state and non-state entities, the ability to reach us conventionally and asymmetrically while obscuring their intentions.” The DoD needs to understand, defend against and also utilize advanced technologies. The DoD is significantly working in this area and NORAD is incorporating new technologies into their Homeland Defense Design effort in order to explore scalable and deployable options for all of North America. These efforts are not only to defend against new technologies, but also to incorporate them as able to increase capabilities.
Another way in which threats are changing in USNORTHCOM is our competitors’ ability to reach into the United States via cyber weapons. “Today, cyberspace offers state and non-state actors the ability to wage campaigns against American political, economic, and security interests without ever physically crossing our borders.” This can occur through many different means and possibly through adversaries utilizing existing connections with our closest neighbors in North America. This is a threat that the NSS specifically calls out and that USNORTHCOM has to account for, specifically from major competitors. USNORTHCOM/CC explicitly discussed Russia and its cyber weapons capability and acknowledged the growing competitiveness of Russia. Any greater awareness would be helpful in an ever-changing cyber environment.
Violent Extremism is another area that is described in the NSS and USNORTHCOM’s posture statement. Violent Extremist forces are capable of varied attacks against North America from multiple approaches. Therefore, USNORTHCOM needs to further build on its information sharing with neighboring countries and determine if areas of potential infiltration by these organizations exist. “The Homeland is no longer a sanctuary protected by oceans and other geography.” These threats need to be understood and mitigated as these evolve and adversaries find new ways to infiltrate North America and the United States.
The NSS emphasizes protecting our borders against many different types of threats. USNORTHCOM and NORAD are charged with enforcing this in many different areas. USNORTHCOM understands many of the issues on the United States southern border and is working to mitigate any threats. “Transnational Criminal Organizations and their networks continue to affect conditions in Mexico and Central America, which introduces instability and creates challenges for our U.S. law enforcement partners responsible for securing our borders.” With this emphasis and understanding of potential significant impacts to the United States and North America, border protection not only in the United States, but also in Mexico, on its southern border, needs to be understood by USNORTHCOM and NORAD when determining strategic goals and threats.
As North American defense evolves to counter the changing landscape, Mexico’s role needs to increase for the security of both countries and the continent. As stated previously, Mexico relies heavily on the United States and the United States also relies heavily on Mexico. A decrease in capabilities of one will negatively impact the other. Additionally, the United States is losing its competitive advantage around the world. This also means we need to relay on allies more effectively. Although a strong thrust is towards countries close to Russia and China recently, we still need to focus on building our relationship with Mexico. We should not neglect opportunities to grow relationships with our close partner and neighbor. As threats change and the world becomes more interdependent and everything is transregional, we will need to rely on our friends, neighbors and allies all the more.
Future Role of Mexico in North American Defense
Mexico plays a large role in the defense of North America but could be incorporated in a larger role with all countries in agreement. Increased interoperability is key to success of any group working together. Below are just a few ways that Mexico could be further incorporated into North American defense as it evolves to meet threats that remain diffuse, less attributable, and increasingly complex through both state and non-state entities using conventional and asymmetric means to reach their goals.
In order to keep America safe in the cyber era, Mexico can play a significant part of helping NORAD and USNORTHCOM defend North America. Increased information sharing in the cyberspace between the countries could significantly help in detecting potential bad actors or when vulnerabilities exist. The United States and Mexico are tied very close in many different areas and communication systems. A vulnerability in one could definitely affect the other. There is already data sharing occurring, but an increased level of interaction and sharing could increase situational awareness for the continent.
Overall, an increased level of information sharing would help in many defense areas to include defense against Violent Extremist Organizations. There is already a great amount of coordination between the countries and crime prevention organizations. Where possible, an increase in communication and information could help in mitigating threats.
Mexico is working significantly to control its borders on the north and south of its country. They have a large flow of immigrants on both borders which is extremely hard to manage. A stronger presence and information sharing in NORAD and USNORTHCOM by Mexico could help to utilize current capabilities of these defense organizations to possibly help manage border issues of both countries. Overall, access to more information in protecting both nation’s borders is advantageous to all and Mexico’s role could increase almost immediately in this area.
One avenue where Mexico excels is in natural disaster support. They unfortunately have natural disasters, but when they do, their military is very fast to respond and is successful. Mexico offered immediate help when Hurricane Harvey damaged the United States in 2017 and also helped during Hurricane Katrina in 2012. Mexico could immediately support many areas in North America when a natural disaster occurs. An increased role in NORTHCOM or NORAD in respect to natural disaster response would be a great help to the organizations and many countries.
Due to increased ballistic missile capability and other adversary capabilities, naval threat response and detection is one area that the Mexican Navy can support NORAD and the defense of North America. The size of the Mexican Navy is quite large and it is a very capable and knowledgeable force. Increasing working relations of the Mexican Navy with NORAD systems in order to determine if there is a potential threat could save NORAD critical time when decisions need to be made. Working together and using new technologies to help advance both countries defense capability would help interoperability, training and trust between countries. With the ever-increasing speed of information and needing as much accurate information as possible, extra sensors intermixed in a large fleet could be very beneficial when time is of the essence.
Overall, Mexico could play a larger role in North American defense. Current DoD leaders are making a very concerted effort to include Mexico at all levels while being considerate of their strategic goals and sovereignty. This coordination should be maintained and increased where and when able in order to build trust, information sharing and interoperability. I don’t expect the Mexican role in North American defense to grow significantly in the next few years, but understanding their capabilities, willingness and potential is very important when determining strategic goals for North America.
Policy Recommendations
The first policy recommendation would be to continue working through the new trade agreement to the benefit of all countries. This agreement needs to not drive Mexico into a worse economic situation. The United States and North America need a Mexican economy that is growing with a stable increasing GDP. When Mexico has steady long-term economic growth trajectory, they will be better able to continue on the many domestic and infrastructure plans they currently have. They will also be able to grow their capacity in other areas and build on relationships with their southern neighbors and help countries to the south build their countries in order to sustain greater order and prosperity in the region. This should be aligned with political discussions and agreements at the highest level of government.
A second policy recommendation is to include Mexico in as many military exercises as possible. They are already included in numerous exercises, but a higher level of inclusion and access to information would build trust and interoperability. This may be difficult with the overall DoD exercise funding budget and the increased emphasis on Russia and China. Never the less, they should be invited to more exercises and if we can reduce the cost of their participation, that would be beneficial to the partnership.
A third policy recommendation is to increase training with both countries. There is already a level of training as discussed earlier, but NORTHCOM, SOUTHCOM and other agencies in the United States Government should look at any opportunities to exchange training tactics, techniques and procedures where applicable. This increased training cooperation will work to build trust and relationships between the countries on many levels. This is another area where funding may be difficult to obtain. Even if it is difficult to fund, it is essential that we try to work this as much as possible. When there can be a joint training environment that doesn’t raise significant costs in any relationship, it should be pursued and supported at the highest levels of the organizations.
Another recommendation includes increasing the amount of Mexican and United States military member exchanges. There are significantly more Canadians in exchanges that Mexican members. This is expected with the long-standing relationship between the United States and Canada, but an increase in Mexican exchanges would be helpful to gain support on both sides. For example, in 2010, US Army North had 18 soldiers serving in the Military Personnel Exchange Program in Canada and only two in Mexico. This significant difference does not go unnoticed by countries in North America. This should increase significantly to at least half of the number of Canadian exchange positions initially. Building the trust and relationships early in careers is essential to long-term growth and partnerships.
A final recommendation is to raise the access to information for Mexico. Currently they are not in many of our agreements to share sensitive or classified information. Mexico should be given more access in areas that the strategic leaders of our military think is possible and steadily raise their ability to share information as the relationship continues to grow. Eventually, it would be ideal if Mexico was at a level similar to Canada, Great Britain, Australia, and New Zealand. But initially, information sharing should be improved and gradually work up to a partnership like the United States shares with those countries.
Conclusion
As North American Defense evolves, all of North America will rely on the strength of Mexico. These strengths lie in many areas from culture, to its economy and military capabilities. The ability to work together for a common North American goal needs to be consistently exercised and built upon for many years and decades to come. This collaboration should be founded on a basis of trust. This trust needs to be continued in some areas and reestablished in others. All the countries in North America need to build on a solid foundation of trust in order to grow together.
Economic factors will continue to be very strong for Mexico and North America. As stated prior, besides China, Mexico and Canada are the United States largest trading partners and Mexico has the 15th largest economy in the world with $1T USD in 2017. This is a major reason that Mexico can dictate many of its relationships and policies around the world. Mexico is strong enough to build independent relationships around the world and help many smaller countries, as it’s trying to do in Central America. This will be a very important area to keep apprised of as relationships evolve in North America and the Western Hemisphere.
Sovereignty is a main point throughout Mexican strategic interests and policies. Mexicans are very proud of their sovereignty and do not want to give any up. This strong base of sovereignty has been built from many years of finding its own way in the world, changing governments, uprising and conflicts. One point to consider is that sovereignty that cannot be defended is theoretical. This may have been the case in the early years of Mexico and why Mexicans hold sovereignty so close to all of their policies and decisions.
With globalization, the increased speed of information and advanced technology, the capabilities of the United States, Canada and Mexico working together will need to be harnessed in order to effectively mitigate larger threats. The primary way to accomplish this will be information sharing. Throughout this research, many instances of current and potential information sharing have been discussed. Gaining trust will be very important in information sharing, but this will be key to the success of North America and the entire Western Hemisphere.
Overall, defense of North America will be greatly enhanced with increased interoperability with Mexico. This increase of Mexican relationships should be one of the highest goals of the United States government but needs to be accomplished as Mexico sees appropriate and, on a timeline, Mexico is comfortable with. Senior leaders from all branches and departments of the United States government need to invite Mexico, as appropriate, to participate in events and include them in decisions that affect North America as equal partners. Only with a strong basis of trust and a long-term commitment to goals that benefit all participants will a stronger relationship be formed. Mexico will then decide if they want to participate more formally and possibly as a permanent partner in defense forums and overall increase the defensive capability of North America.
About the Author
Lieutenant Colonel Bucheit is assigned at USNORTHCOM in the Strategy, Policy & Plans Directorate. Prior to attending the Eisenhower School for National Security and Research Strategy he was a C-17 Squadron Commander at Joint Base Charleston, South Carolina. A command pilot, he has over 3,000 flying hours.